Thunder Close in on Western Conference Finals as Nuggets Stare Down Elimination
Everything is on the line for the Denver Nuggets as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of their Nuggets vs Thunder Western Conference Semifinals showdown on Thursday, May 15, 2025. The Thunder are holding onto a 3-2 series advantage, trying to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals—a stage they haven't reached since the Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook days back in 2016. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are clinging to playoff survival, desperate to defend their home turf at Ball Arena and force a nail-biting Game 7.
The betting lines make things pretty clear: oddsmakers listed the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites, setting the over/under at 216.5. That might surprise some given Denver’s reputation as a tough out at home, but Oklahoma City’s playoff run has been nothing short of impressive. At 7-2 in the playoffs with a 3-1 road record, the Thunder have played like seasoned vets rather than a young up-and-coming squad.
Key Numbers: Thunder’s Offense vs. Nuggets’ Defense
How did we get here? Oklahoma City has been firing on all cylinders offensively, putting up 117.3 points per game in the series. Their field goal percentage sits just below 45%, and while their three-point shooting (32.6%) isn’t elite, it’s been just enough to keep Denver’s defense off balance. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the thunderbolt driving the attack, dropping 28.0 points and handing out more than six assists a game. He’s had plenty of help too: Jalen Williams is popping for nearly 21 points a night and Chet Holmgren has come up big on both ends.
But the Thunder aren’t just about scoring. They’re pounding the glass, grabbing over 47 rebounds each game with Isaiah Hartenstein leading the way. That extra effort on the boards has often given them the edge in tight situations. Denver, on the other hand, has leaned on its defense all season, keeping opponents to 103.8 points per game and forcing tough shots at a 40.8% field goal average. The big question—can they actually slow down Oklahoma City’s barrage for a full 48 minutes?
The last time these teams clashed in Denver back in March, the Thunder just steamrolled the Nuggets 127-103. That win set the tone for this playoff series. Since then, the Nuggets have struggled to contain Oklahoma City, giving up way too many transition buckets and second-chance points. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have had flashes, but Denver needs a full-team effort—especially defensively—to flip the script.
Some numbers make this game feel like a coin toss. SportsLine’s advanced model is projecting a combined 227 points, but the bookies are being careful with that 216.5 line. Their model sees a 70% probability on one side of the spread—a sign of just how much this matchup could tilt with one hot or cold streak.
Expert takes aren't helping Nuggets fans’ nerves. Several analysts think the Thunder’s offensive firepower and depth are just too much right now. The X-factor, though, remains SGA; his ability to take over in crunch time has bailed out Oklahoma City more than once. If Denver can’t find a way to bottle him up, it could be a long summer in the Mile High City.
On the betting side, oddsmakers may be signaling a low-scoring grind. Many experts are looking at the under, especially with Denver’s defense known for slugging things out at home when their backs are against the wall. Still, with so much talent on the court, a late scoring burst can break things open fast—just look back at how the Thunder closed Game 5.
Game 6 isn’t just about stats or picks, though. For Denver, it’s the season. For Oklahoma City? A chance to show the young core is ready for prime time again. With stars on both sides, expect the unexpected—the only thing for sure is that nothing is guaranteed once the ball goes up.