On Sunday, November 24, 2025, the NFL’s Week 12 slate delivered more than just touchdowns—it delivered playoff implications. With 14 games stretching from early afternoon to Monday night, expert analysts from CBS Sports, Action Network, and ESPN laid out their most confident picks, and the results are shaping up to be a turning point in the 2025 season. The New Orleans Saints edged the Atlanta Falcons 23-21, covering the -1.5 spread, while the Baltimore Ravens crushed the New York Jets 33-16, making -13.5 look like a gift. But it wasn’t just the big wins that caught attention—it was the quiet, calculated moves that could define the postseason.
Quarterback Showdowns Define the Week
The real story of Week 12 wasn’t just who won, but who played like a playoff contender. Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots’ veteran signal-caller, quietly outperformed nearly every starter in the league. According to Action Network’s senior analyst Chris Raybon, Brissett ranks 15th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in key efficiency metrics—better than Kyler Murray (21st) and Trevor Lawrence (32nd). That’s not a typo. Brissett, often dismissed as a journeyman, is now the most reliable QB in New England’s offense since Mac Jones’ departure. Meanwhile, Murray’s performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars validated the +2.5 spread pick. His 270 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over a defense that had held three straight opponents under 20 points showed why Arizona still has playoff breathing room. Lawrence, by contrast, threw two interceptions and looked out of sync. "He’s not bad," Raybon noted. "He’s just not good enough when the stakes rise."The Tinsley Bet That Caught Everyone Off Guard
In the New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals game, the biggest betting value wasn’t on the quarterback or even the spread—it was on a little-known receiver. Mitchell Tinsley, a third-year wideout with just 46 routes and six targets all season, went off for two touchdowns, including a 38-yard grab in the fourth quarter. His +600 Anytime TD prop hit hard, and Raybon’s analysis proved prescient: "Tinsley is underpriced up against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fifth-most TDs per game to WRs (1.27)." The Bengals’ offense, already thin without Ja’Marr Chase (suspension), had no answer. Mike Gesicki, back from injury, was targeted only three times. Tinsley, meanwhile, ran routes on 80% of dropbacks. He wasn’t the star—he was the only option left.
Divisional Races Get Messier
The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-20, covering the -3.5 spread, and suddenly the NFC East is a three-team dogfight. The Minnesota Vikings held off the Green Bay Packers 24-21 in a brutal, rain-soaked battle at Lambeau Field, keeping them in the NFC North hunt. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers dismantled the Carolina Panthers 33-24, reminding everyone why they’re still the team to beat in the NFC. But the real shocker? The Los Angeles Rams lost 24-23 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, despite holding a 23-10 lead late. Tom Brady’s replacement, Baker Mayfield, engineered a 13-point comeback in under six minutes. The +6.5 spread pick was a gamble—but it paid off. The Rams’ defense, once the league’s best, now looks fragile.What’s Next? The Final Push
With just five weeks left, the playoff picture is tightening. The Baltimore Ravens are now the AFC’s top seed, but the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans are closing in. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are tied at 8-3, and the Minnesota Vikings are just one game back. The New Orleans Saints are now 7-4, and a win next week against Carolina could put them in control of the NFC South. The New England Patriots are quietly becoming the league’s most dangerous underdog. Brissett’s poise, Tinsley’s emergence, and a defense that’s held four of their last five opponents under 20 points make them a nightmare in January. They’re not supposed to be here. But they are.
Expert Takeaways: Why This Week Matters
Chris Raybon summed it up best: "Week 12 isn’t about the big names. It’s about who steps up when no one’s watching. Brissett didn’t get a highlight reel. Tinsley didn’t get a Twitter trend. But they won their team the game. That’s playoff football." And that’s the story of this season. The stars are still there—Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson. But the real winners? The backups. The role players. The ones who show up when it counts.Frequently Asked Questions
Which teams are most likely to make the playoffs based on Week 12 results?
The Baltimore Ravens (9-2) and San Francisco 49ers (10-1) are clear AFC and NFC favorites. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) and New Orleans Saints (7-4) are in strong position for wild cards, while the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans need to win two of their next three to stay alive.
Why was Mitchell Tinsley such a smart bet?
Tinsley was a 46-route, six-target player who had never scored a touchdown all season. But with Ja’Marr Chase suspended and the Bengals’ secondary focused on other receivers, he became the only open option. The Patriots allowed 1.27 WR touchdowns per game—the fifth-highest rate in the league. At +600 odds, he was massively undervalued. His two TDs made him the most profitable prop bet of the week.
How did Jacoby Brissett outperform Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence?
Brissett ranked 15th among 38 qualified QBs in Expected Points Added per play and Completion Percentage Over Expected, beating Murray (21st) and Lawrence (32nd). He didn’t have elite arm talent, but he made quick, accurate decisions under pressure. His 87.1 passer rating in Week 12 was his best since 2022. The Patriots’ offense, while not flashy, was efficient—and that’s what wins in December.
What does the Rams’ loss to the Buccaneers mean for their season?
The Rams’ 24-23 loss to Tampa Bay ended their four-game winning streak and exposed serious defensive flaws. They gave up 13 points in the final 5:42, and their pass rush recorded zero sacks. With a tough schedule ahead—including games against the 49ers and Seahawks—they’re now on the playoff bubble. A 9-8 record may not be enough in the NFC.
Are the New England Patriots a real threat in January?
Absolutely. With Brissett playing like a veteran playoff QB and Tinsley emerging as a reliable red-zone target, the Patriots are 6-5 and tied for the final wild card spot. Their defense is top-10 in red-zone efficiency, and they’ve won three of their last four games by 10+ points. If they beat the Bills next week, they’ll be in the driver’s seat. No one’s talking about them—but they’re the team no one wants to face.
What’s the biggest surprise of Week 12?
The Seattle Seahawks dominating the Tennessee Titans 30-14 as -13.5 favorites. Geno Smith threw for 298 yards and three TDs, while the Titans’ offense managed just 172 total yards. It was the most lopsided win in the AFC South this season—and it knocked Tennessee out of playoff contention. The Seahawks, once written off, are now 7-4 and in the hunt.