Major Injuries and Roster Shake-Ups Hit the Pacers
Heading into Game 4, the Pacers are in a tough spot. Losing Isaiah Jackson to an Achilles issue and Jarace Walker to an ankle sprain takes a real bite out of their depth. Jackson’s absence leaves the Pacers thin in the paint, forcing them to dig deeper into their bench. Walker’s stat line might not jump off the page for regular-season fans—just 36 points, 21 rebounds, and 8 assists in this postseason—but his spark off the bench has made a genuine difference when called upon. Without these two, Indiana has to hope everyone else steps up, especially since every mistake is magnified in the playoffs.
It’s not just about who’s missing, though. The pressure instantly ramps up on Tyrese Haliburton, who has proven to be the team’s engine when their backs are against the wall. The numbers speak for themselves: whenever Indiana scores over 111 points in these playoffs, they’re unbeaten (14-0). And Haliburton dropping at least 20 points almost guarantees a win. If he stumbles, the offense weakens—and so do their chances. The Pacers are leaning hard into their quick tempo since a run-and-gun pace keeps defenders scrambled and opens up scoring lanes for the likes of T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard.
Thunder’s Form and the Chess Match of Playoff Pacing
Oklahoma City comes into Game 4 under a different kind of heat. Despite earning favorite status, especially after a win, the Thunder have floundered in the Finals so far—dropping three straight games following victories. Consistency seems elusive for them when it matters most. But there’s no shortage of individual performers making noise for OKC. Isaiah Joe ranks among league leaders in three-point makes per 36 minutes (4.3), which adds a deadly dimension to their offense. Jalen Williams isn’t just about buckets—his 1.6 steals per game (seventh in the playoffs) keep opponents guessing on every possession.
For the Pacers, playmaking is in the hands of T.J. McConnell, who finds teammates for nearly nine assists per 36 minutes—sixth best in the playoffs. And Ben Sheppard doesn’t just keep the ball moving; his 3.9 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks eighth, putting him among the most reliable passers in tough playoff settings. These players need to fill even bigger shoes with Indiana’s frontline thinned by injuries.
The betting trends reflect the quirks of both teams. Indiana has consistently been reliable in specific situations, covering the spread in six of their last seven road games as underdogs right after a loss. That mental reset seems to galvanize the Pacers on the road. The Thunder, for all their firepower, have struggled to carry momentum—they just can’t seem to string together back-to-back strong outings when the stakes are highest.
So, what’s the secret sauce? It’s all about controlling how fast the game is played. The Pacers want a frenetic, up-and-down flow where they can run and space the floor. On the flip side, the Thunder try to drag the tempo down, playing more methodically to keep Indiana’s shooters from getting rhythm looks. Whoever wins this tug-of-war will tip the scales in their favor for Game 4.
The injuries, scoring trends, and game pace aren’t just stats on paper—they’re the reality shaping every possession. As Game 4 tips off, every missed shot and every possession change could be the difference between moving forward or falling behind for both the Pacers and the Thunder.