Fleetwood and Cantlay seize control at East Lake
Two names, one target. Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay will step onto the first tee Sunday tied at 16-under 194, sharing the 54-hole lead at East Lake Golf Club and staring at a finish loaded with pressure: the Tour Championship trophy and the $10 million FedExCup prize are both wrapped into one winner-take-all number.
They’ll go out in the final pairing with a three-shot cushion over the rest, and for once there’s no math puzzle attached. A midseason rule change scrapped the starting-strokes format, turning the season finale into a clean, old-school race. Lowest total wins the tournament and the FedExCup. No head starts. No asterisks.
Fleetwood got there with a third-round 66, steady and unflappable. He began the week as the FedExCup points leader and has lived near the top of leaderboards all summer. This is the third time in his last six starts that he’s held or shared the 54-hole lead. The previous two slipped away, including one at the Travelers and another at the FedEx St. Jude Championship two years ago. He knows the narrative that follows him: brilliant ball-striking, world-class poise, and still no PGA Tour win.
He didn’t hide from it Saturday night. He said he needs to park the old scars and close the deal. For context, the 34-year-old Englishman has earned more than $33.4 million on the PGA Tour without a victory, per ESPN Research—the most money ever by a player without a win. He’s stacked 30 top-fives in the past decade, more than anyone else in that span who hasn’t broken through. Winning Sunday would rewrite that story in bold. He’d also become the first player to make this championship his maiden PGA Tour title.
Cantlay joined him with a polished 64 built on seven birdies and one bogey. It looked, frankly, like vintage Cantlay—methodical, balanced, and clinical when it mattered. His season has had a few hiccups by his standards, but his playoff DNA is real, and he’s a past FedExCup winner who doesn’t rattle when the pot gets big. He arrived in Atlanta with longish odds (+2500), a quiet number for a player comfortable in this arena. Now he’s right where he likes to be: level with the lead, driver humming, eyes flat.
Behind them, the threats are obvious and dangerous. Russell Henley, who lit East Lake on fire with a course-record 61 in round one and shared the halfway lead, sits at 13-under after stacking rounds in the 60s. He’s not flashy, but his rhythm and accuracy tend to travel under pressure, and East Lake rewards that style.
Then there’s world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at 12-under after a third-round 67. He won last week’s BMW Championship and is trying to become the first player to win FedExCups back-to-back. He came in as the betting favorite at +150 and hasn’t gone anywhere. Four back is not a canyon for Scheffler. If his putter warms even a touch, he can erase that gap quickly.
All of it is happening on a course that demands patience. East Lake, a storied par 70 in Atlanta, leans on narrow sightlines, punishing rough, and smart angles into firm greens. It’s not a bomber’s festival. It’s a test of discipline and placement, and it tends to expose any hesitation in the final hour. With two par-5s, including the closing 18th, there’s enough risk-reward at the end to swing the tournament in a heartbeat.
The rule change to eliminate starting strokes might be the defining subplot of the week. For years, fans had to juggle the on-course leaderboard and a separate scoreboard that accounted for a head start based on season points. Not this time. The math is simple: add up the shots, lowest number wins both the tournament and the season-long race. It means players who arrive in form can charge without a built-in handicap working against them. It also means the final round should feel purer—more like a traditional Sunday, where everyone sees the same target and plays for it.
That matters for Fleetwood more than most. In a format that rewards a true four-round performance, he doesn’t need a dazzling 61; he needs one more poised, high-60s round with the putter holding up and the misses small. His iron play has been his engine. If he keeps giving himself looks from the 10-to-20-foot window and stays tidy around the greens, the long-awaited win is right there.
For Cantlay, the script is familiar: keep the ball in the fairway, lean on mid-iron control, and accept that a couple of holes will try to push him into risky shots he doesn’t need. His third-round card had the feel of someone who knows where the stress points are and refuses to give them extra oxygen. If his pace on the greens stays confident, he can force others to chase and make the mistakes.
Scheffler is the wild card because of how quickly he can run off a flurry of birdies. He’s four back but starts in the second-to-last group with a clear view of what the leaders are doing. He has the advantage of freedom—no need to protect a lead, just put a number on the board and turn up the heat. If he can take advantage of both par-5s and clip one or two of the reachable par-4s with wedges, he’ll bring the leaders into his airspace by the turn.
Henley’s path is old-school: fairways, greens, zero drama. His opening 61 showed he can go low here; the last two rounds showed he can steady the ship when the course tightens up. If the leaders stall, he’s close enough to matter without having to slam on the gas.
Storylines and stakes for Sunday
What makes this final round interesting is the mix of pressure profiles. Fleetwood is chasing a first PGA Tour title and a season crown in the same breath. Cantlay is hunting another marquee trophy to stamp a year that never fully clicked. Scheffler is trying to do something nobody has—win the FedExCup in consecutive seasons. And Henley is calmly knocking on the door, one swing thought at a time.
- Fleetwood’s breakthrough bid: The near-misses are well documented, and that can be heavy late on Sunday. The key for him is simple targets and stress-free pars. If he keeps his pre-shot routine brisk and trusts the putter from inside six feet, everything else should follow.
- Cantlay’s playoff pedigree: He’s built for neutral golf—fairways, middle of greens, take what the course gives. He doesn’t need fireworks; he needs silence. If he turns the final round into a fairway-and-green contest, he’s tough to catch.
- Scheffler’s chase: He can apply pressure fast. Watch the opening five holes. If he picks up two early, the tone of the day changes and the leaders will feel it.
- The closing stretch: East Lake’s finish has teeth and opportunity. The par-5 18th is a true swing hole—eagle chance for the bold, a nervy layup for the cautious. If the margin is one shot on the 72nd hole, expect a punchy decision from anyone chasing.
Money isn’t the only stake, but it’s not a footnote either. Ten million dollars for the winner resets seasons, changes careers, and hangs over every approach late on Sunday. For Fleetwood, it would be a signature moment in a career defined by consistency without closure. For Cantlay, it would be another line on a resume that already reads like a masterclass in elite, sustained play. For Scheffler, it would be a marker of dominance—back-to-back season titles in an era deeper than ever.
Inside the locker room, there’s real affection for Fleetwood’s resilience. Rory McIlroy said as much this week, praising Fleetwood’s attitude and staying power. The sentiment is common: he handles the grind with grace, keeps showing up, and deserves a moment like this. Golf doesn’t grant wishes, but it sometimes rewards the stubborn.
Conditions will shape the plan, but the blueprint is clear. Avoid the big miss off the tee, keep the ball under the hole, and accept that pars on a handful of stout mid-length par-4s are winning scores. The leaders will likely respect those holes and try to strike on the shorter par-4s and the two par-5s.
There’s also the psychology of the final group. When co-leaders go out together, the round often starts with a quiet truce—fairways, cautious irons, center-cut lag putts. The first made birdie can break that rhythm. Watch the body language: the quicker the step, the straighter the stare, the better the odds that a player is in his comfort zone. Fleetwood has worn that look many Sundays. Cantlay’s default setting is that look.
Odds will bounce in real time, but the truth is simple: any of the top four can win this with a mid-60s round. The math is clean this year, the stakes are clear, and the margin for error is thin. It’s a fitting setup for a season ender—no cushion, no calculus, just four rounds to settle a year of golf in one afternoon.